Why the Armenian Lobby Should Oppose U.S. Escalation in the Iran-Israel War

BY RAFFY ARDHALDJIAN

Israel on June 13 launched coordinated airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. As tensions escalate and the region braces for retaliation, there is growing pressure on the Trump administration to get involved militarily in the Israel-Iran conflict. Israel has pressed Mr. Trump to use powerful American weapons to attack Iran’s underground nuclear sites, and the prospect of American involvement in the war has added to fears that it could spiral into a wider conflagration in the Middle East. The United States must avoid military escalation and unpredictable adventurism in this war. This is a moment that demands strategic restraint—not impulsive confrontation.

The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA)—the leading grassroots voice of the Armenian-American community—should step forward with clarity and conviction. This is not about defending Iran or questioning Israel’s right to security. It is about resisting a familiar, dangerous pattern of rushed interventions that lead to long-term instability, the erosion of American interests, and harm to small, exposed democracies like Armenia caught in the regional crosswinds.

The cycle is well known: a crisis abroad, a rush to show strength by neocons, and then years of open-ended conflict with no strategic outcome. From Iraq and Syria, to Libya and Afghanistan, these patterns have burdened U.S. credibility and weakened global stability. Today, a significant portion of Americans are more concerned with inflation, economic uncertainty, and border security than with launching another war in the Middle East. That sentiment crosses ideological lines—and it resonates particularly with President Trump’s base. Prominent voices like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon have repeatedly warned that foreign entanglements undermine American strength by draining resources and distracting from domestic priorities.

This growing skepticism is now reflected in Congress. A bipartisan resolution introduced by Representatives Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Ro Khanna (D-CA) would require congressional approval before any offensive U.S. action against Iran. The message is clear: escalation is not inevitable—it must be debated, justified, and restrained.

Armenia’s Stakes in a Widening War
Armenia—a reform-minded, sovereign democracy on Iran’s northern border—is still recovering from the 2023 ethnic cleansing of 120,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, a trauma that reshaped its society and strained its institutions. A broader war involving Iran could severely disrupt Armenia’s trade routes, cut off fuel supplies, and overwhelm its infrastructure with refugee flows. Armenia could quickly become a pressured transit zone, situated between a collapsing border and a shifting geopolitical map.

The threat of Azerbaijani opportunism cannot be dismissed either. In times of regional distraction, power plays become more likely. Armenia’s security depends not just on its own resilience, but on the restraint of larger powers.

Amid this volatility, Armenia is seeking regional peace and defending its sovereignty. These aren’t rhetorical positions—they are imperatives for survival.

The Armenian-American community is also watching with concern. It is connected not only to Armenia itself, but also to centuries-old Armenian diasporas in both Iran and Jerusalem—communities that face real danger in the event of regional conflict. These ties are not just cultural—they are familial, historical, and moral.

A Strategic Voice for Restraint
This is a chance for ANCA to expand its engagement and act decisively in a high-stakes foreign policy debate. It has long been a respected advocate for justice, human rights, and U.S.-Armenia relations. Now, it can contribute to a broader conversation about war, diplomacy, and America’s place in the world.

“The Armenian-American community opposes U.S. military escalation and unpredictable adventurism in the Iran-Israel conflict. We support Congressional oversight of war powers and call on the Trump administration to pursue diplomacy and regional restraint.”

This isn’t a partisan stance—it’s a strategic one. It resonates with a growing consensus that America cannot afford another prolonged, ill-defined war in the Middle East. And it recognizes that small, sovereign states—from Armenia to the Gulf—positioned along fault lines—will bear the cost first.

Escalation is a choice. The Trump administration still has the opportunity to pursue measured leadership—choosing diplomacy over destruction, and calculated strategy over reckless pressure. Despite rising alarm, there is no evidence that Iran is rushing to build a nuclear weapon. A confidential May 31 report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) noted concerns over enriched uranium, but Director General Rafael Grossi stated the agency found no proof of weapons production. Likewise, U.S. intelligence has not changed its assessment since March, when the Director of National Intelligence told Congress that Iran has large uranium stockpiles but has not decided to build a bomb. The U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 likely played a key role in Iran’s return to higher enrichment—highlighting the cost of abandoning diplomacy. The Obama administration proved that diplomacy—not force—can contain nuclear threats, a lesson more relevant than ever.

Armenia does not want to be pulled into someone else’s war. Nor do many Americans. The pursuit of sovereignty, stability, and peace—both at home and abroad—is not hesitation. It is wisdom.

This moment gives ANCA a chance to step forward not only as a community advocate, but as a foreign policy stakeholder. As a national voice for a community rooted in one of the world’s oldest Christian traditions—connected to ethnic kin in a sovereign democracy on Iran’s border, and to centuries-old diasporas in both Iran and Jerusalem—ANCA has both the legitimacy and the responsibility to help shape this critical debate.

It’s time to speak clearly: No escalation. No entanglement. Responsible statecraft—now.

Raffy Ardhaldjian is a Fletcher School graduate and advisor to boards, public institutions, and NGOs. He focuses on pan-Armenian strategic questions spanning Armenia and its global diaspora.