Expert warns of high risk of military confrontation in region

Turkologist Varuzhan Geghamyan has raised serious concerns about recent military developments near Armenia’s southern borders, calling the situation “critical” and warning of a high risk of armed conflict in the region.

In a social media post on Thursday, Geghamyan outlined a series of developments that point to growing instability:

• Starting today and continuing through June 30, Turkey is deploying military units in Nakhichevan – just about 70 kilometers from Yerevan – for two joint military exercises with Azerbaijan.
• Over the past two to three months, Azerbaijan has been consistently transporting large quantities of weapons and military equipment into its territory, including Nakhichevan.
• Nearly three weeks ago, senior officials from both Russia and the United States warned of a heighted risk of military clashes around Armenia’s Syunik Province bordering Iran.
• As negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked, multiple regional actors have signaled that the area is entering a pre-war state. The U.S. has already started evacuating the families of diplomats and military personnel from Iraq.
• In recent weeks, Azerbaijan has repeatedly opened fire toward Armenian settlements in Syunik.

“These are plain facts,” Geghamyan said, warning the “situation is critical, the risk of military confrontation is high and Syunik stands as the primary target.”

He further criticized Armenia’s current leadership for diverting public attention from external threats. “While the world is preparing for war, it’s just another Thursday in Armenia, where national institutions and the public are being targeted, rather than external threats. Our sole focus should be on the latter,” the expert added.