EAEU warns Armenia of sharp economic decline if membership is suspended amid EU integration push

YEREVAN— Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have issued a report warning of severe economic consequences for Armenia if its participation in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is suspended amid the country’s efforts to pursue European Union membership.

The report, submitted on October 20, projects that Armenia’s trade with EAEU member states could decline by 55.6%, falling from approximately $8 billion in 2025 to $3.55 billion.

The four countries also forecast a 15.6% contraction in Armenia’s GDP, a 14.9-percentage-point increase in inflation and a 14.6% decline in consumption.

Natural gas prices could rise by approximately 69%, from $177.50 to $300 per 1,000 cubic metres.

The report warns that suspension could lead to renewed customs controls, additional trade barriers and stricter labour migration conditions for Armenian citizens working in Russia and other EAEU countries.

The document comes as Armenia pursues closer integration with the European Union, a process the four EAEU members maintain could conflict with Yerevan’s existing treaty obligations.

They are considering the possibility of temporarily suspending the EAEU treaty’s application to Armenia until a referendum clarifies the country’s future integration path.

Importantly, the projected economic consequences are estimates prepared by Armenia’s EAEU partners, not independently verified forecasts.

No decision to suspend Armenia’s membership has been announced, and the EAEU treaty does not expressly provide for unilateral suspension of another member’s participation.

The warning underscores the economic and geopolitical pressures facing Armenia as it seeks closer ties with Europe while maintaining significant trade and energy dependence on Russia.