Washington declaration could drag Armenia into armed conflicts: Policy analyst Jeffrey Sachs

Peaceful relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are a good thing, the role of the United States here is problematic, because the US is not part of the South Caucasus region, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, said in a recent interview with 168 News.

While talking about the declaration signed in Washington by Trump, Pashinyan and Aliev, he menotied that declarations by themselves don’t bring peace: “What brings peace is cooperation among neighbors. What is concerning, is that the South Caucus is a very complicated region. There are a number of powers in the region. The South Caucasus countries are small by population and surrounded by much larger, more powerful countries, and now the United States is trying to insert itself inside as well. Also Azerbaijan inserted itself, it seems, into the recent war between Israel and Iran. So there’s a lot of concern that the South Caucasus is being used as staging grounds by major powers in ways that will not preserve the peace if it goes in that direction.”

He finds rather shocking for a country to give up its territory in a 99-year lease, like Armenia is doing now, especially to an outside power: “It is viewed with a lot of security concern by the neighbors of Armenia, notably Russia and Iran. So the claim is that Armenia is going to give exclusive rights to the United States for control over part of Armenia for 99 years. It’s rather shocking. I think it’s a very dangerous idea. The idea is that the United States will control it, which is rather amazing, both from the point of view of Armenia’s own security, because the United States could pull Armenia into all sorts of trouble, and it’s also alarming from the point of view of Iran, because it’s on Iran’s border. And frankly, the United States is no protection for Armenia against Iran. The United States is 1000s of miles away. Iran is on Armenia’s border. Given that, it seems to me, personally, a very strange idea and a very imprudent idea. Armenia is mortgaging its future to the behavior of the United States in a very unstable region, and knowing that the United States, for example, has just been to war with Iran.

So think of it from Iran’s point of view here, Armenia says to the United States “sure you take this land right on Iran’s border. We know that you’re at war with Iran. We know that your ally Israel is at war with Iran. We know that Azerbaijan is an ally of Israel. So sure, no problem.” Well, that seems like a real way to enmesh Armenia into a war. I don’t, frankly, understand what the Armenian political leadership is thinking of but this is a very provocative and dangerous move, if you look at it purely from the outside, from geopolitical terms, it’s basically putting Armenia into Israel’s war against Iran. Is that really what Armenia wants to do? Wouldn’t it rather have quiet and some quiet relations, rather than insert itself into what is an ongoing War? I don’t understand it.”

We mentioned about the statements from the Armenian government, which assures that this will bring peace.

“Well, maybe ask whether the US brought peace to Ukraine. Over the last 11 years, when the US inserted itself into Ukraine, it did not bring peace, it brought war. You know, the best rule for a country is decent relations with its neighbors, to depend on security from a country halfway around the world that is at war with your neighbor is not to bring peace, it’s to risk disaster. So this is really why this is such a strange idea. Think of it again, from Iran’s point of view, immediately, when they saw this announcement, they said this will never be allowed to happen. So as soon as they said that, that should tell the people of Armenia, okay, this is a gamble. What kind of gamble? Why are we making this gamble? Is this really what we want to suddenly be part of the Israel Iran conflict? Why this is no business of Armenia, but this is what this corridor is dragging Armenia into. If it actually were to go forward, I’m not sure how it could really go forward without creating a lot of trouble,” Professor Sachs answered.

In his opinion, Armenia is almost asking to be turned to another Syria or Ukraine: “People should understand – Azerbaijan is in a very deep intelligence and security relationship with Israel, and this is widely known in the war between Israel and Iran. Azerbaijan was a staging ground for Israel for that war. Now, Armenia is entering into the same conflict in this way. That’s not about peace.

This is an invitation for trouble. Actually, I think you don’t make peace by provoking the next door neighbor and say, we’ll be protected by the country 1000s of kilometers away.

Look at the protection that the US actually gives to other countries, it doesn’t exist right now, and so there’s enough evidence that you don’t gamble away your future because you’ve sat in the Oval Office of the White House. I just think it’s very provocative. It raises a lot of questions and a lot of eyebrows, and for any country to give up permanent rights over 99 years to another country. Maybe the US looks like a friend today, but will it be a friend tomorrow? Maybe it will want something else of Armenia, but also it’s inserting Armenia into a regional conflict that is very serious, and a present conflict, not a theoretical conflict.”