Tulsi Gabbard should release intelligence about Azerbaijan’s looming war

By Michael Rubin

Washington Examiner – Russian President Vladimir Putin‘splan to invade Ukraine in February 2022 involved a false flag operation designed to appear as a Ukrainian attack on Russian interests followed by a punitive invasion to overwhelm the Ukrainians. With Putin’s troops ready to descend, he would deliver an ultimatum and then a crushing blow.

One major reason his set-up failed was that the White House leaked intelligence on both the false flag and the Russian mobilization. Russia could still invade, and, obviously, it did, but it could not shield itself in righteousness. Simultaneously, the U.S. intelligence community’s forewarning gave Ukraine critical time to organize its defense.

It’s déjà vu all over again. Having conquered and ethnically cleansed the Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, Azerbaijan lost its public casus belli against Armenia. However, this was always an excuse to feed diplomats. Azerbaijan’s problem with Armenia is not any grievance. Rather, it is ideological. Just as Putin cannot accept Ukraine’s existence as a culture or people, let alone an independent country, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev — a man whose father was a senior KGB officer and grew up in the same circles as Putin — simply cannot countenance Armenian culture, statehood, or even existence.

There is ample evidence suggesting an imminent Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia, notwithstanding rumors of Armenian acquiescence to a final peace agreement. Azerbaijani and Turkish state media in both Russian and Turkish are full of stories about supposed provocations and an imminent Armenian offensive as Ankara and Baku prepare public opinion for their response.

The problem is not just newspaper commentary but troop movements. Before the second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan tested the waters with troop movements and skirmishes that lasted up to four days. U.S. intelligence no longer assesses these as random acts, so it takes them more seriously now that they reoccur. Increasing Azerbaijani rhetoric about Armenia being rightful Azerbaijani land and depiction of Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan” mirror Putin’s eliminationist references to Ukraine and the late dictator Saddam Hussein’s rhetoric in the run-up to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.

Prior to the 2024 election, Tulsi Gabbard, who is now President Donald Trump’s director of national intelligence, recognized the threats Armenia faced. As a congresswoman, she visited not only Armenia but also Nagorno-Karabakh. When she returned to Congress, she declared, “Turkey, which denies genocide, has no fear of committing it again.”

She was right then and should do the right thing now.

Azerbaijan’s preparation for an invasion to wipe Armenia off the map poses the Trump administration its first grave test of commitment to religious freedom. Trump may no more want to deploy forces to Armenia than to Ukraine, but he could help Armenia and protect its ancient Christian community by releasing intelligence showing Azerbaijan’s preparation for war to raise awareness, convey to Aliyev that he will not act in the dark, and hopefully rally international pressure to force Azerbaijan to demobilize and disarm.

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Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is director of analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.