Trump signals possible Iran deal as war escalates, international mediation efforts face uncertainty

(Horizon Weekly) – U.S. President Donald Trump said he is “pretty sure” a deal with Iran could be reached soon, even as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies and diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan struggle to gain traction.

Speaking amid ongoing hostilities, Trump expressed optimism about negotiations but paired that message with renewed threats of major military escalation. He warned that if a deal is not reached and the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, the United States could “obliterate” Iran’s key energy infrastructure, including oil facilities and the critical export hub at Kharg Island.

The conflict, now several weeks old, has already expanded beyond a bilateral confrontation. Fighting between U.S. and Israeli forces on one side and Iran and its regional allies on the other has spread across multiple fronts, including Lebanon and the Red Sea, raising fears of a broader regional war.

At the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes. Iran’s effective blockade of the route has disrupted global energy markets and driven oil prices sharply higher, intensifying international pressure for a resolution.

Diplomatic efforts are ongoing but remain fragile. Pakistan, alongside Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, has been attempting to mediate talks between Washington and Tehran. Officials involved in the process say both sides have signalled openness to negotiations, but deep divisions over key demands, particularly around Iran’s nuclear program and military posture, continue to hinder progress.

Iran has rejected U.S. proposals as “unrealistic” and denied that direct negotiations are currently underway. At the same time, Tehran has warned against further U.S. military action, raising the risk of escalation if diplomacy collapses.

Meanwhile, the United States has continued to build its military presence in the region, deploying additional forces as contingency planning for possible operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force. Analysts warn that such a move would carry significant risks, including retaliation and wider regional instability.

Despite Trump’s stated confidence, the gap between the two sides and the ongoing military escalation suggest that any near-term agreement remains uncertain, with Pakistan-led mediation representing one of the few active diplomatic channels still in play.