Kenneth Roth: West is ignoring democratic erosion in Armenia for geopolitical gain

(Horizon Media / YEREVAN) – In an article published in Foreign Policy titled “Can Armenia’s Democracy Prevail?”, Kenneth Roth argues that Armenia has become one of the clearest emerging battlegrounds in the global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism ahead of the country’s June 7 parliamentary elections.

Roth presents the elections not simply as a domestic political contest, but as a defining test of whether Armenia’s democratic institutions can withstand the growing concentration of power under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The article paints a picture of a government increasingly resorting to intimidation, arrests, pressure against journalists, politicization of the judiciary, and direct interference in the affairs of the Armenian Apostolic Church in order to secure its political survival.

The piece sharply criticizes Western governments for abandoning democratic consistency in Armenia in favour of geopolitical calculations. Roth argues that the United States and major European powers have effectively decided to overlook democratic erosion because Pashinyan is viewed as the West’s preferred partner against Russian influence in the South Caucasus.

The article warns that this approach dangerously undermines the very democratic values Western governments claim to defend elsewhere. He draws a direct contrast with Hungary, where European pressure was mobilized against democratic backsliding, while in Armenia, similar concerns are being ignored because of strategic interests tied to Russia.

A major focus of the article is the growing public dissatisfaction inside Armenia following the 2023 loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and the forced displacement of approximately 120,000 Armenians. The author argues that Pashinyan’s efforts to sideline the issue, combined with attacks on church figures advocating for Artsakh Armenians and Armenian detainees held in Azerbaijan, have deepened political anger across the country.

The article also examines the rise of opposition forces ahead of the election, particularly the emergence of the “Strong Armenia” movement led by businessman and philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan. He presents Karapetyan’s arrest following his defence of the Armenian Church as part of a broader pattern of politically motivated repression directed at challengers to the government.

Western political engagement in Armenia ahead of the elections is portrayed as overtly one-sided. Roth points to the visit of U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance, the recent European Political Community Summit held in Yerevan, and public praise from European leaders for Pashinyan as developments widely interpreted in Armenia as indirect endorsements of the incumbent government during an election period.

The article ultimately argues that Armenia is in danger of drifting toward “elected autocracy” under the cover of pro-Western rhetoric. Roth stresses that democratic legitimacy cannot be selectively defended depending on geopolitical convenience, warning that sacrificing democratic principles in Armenia weakens the credibility of the West’s broader commitment to democracy worldwide.

Kenneth Roth is a visiting professor at Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and served for nearly three decades as executive director of Human Rights Watch. He currently serves on the executive board of International Observatory for Democracy in Armenia.