Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service flags risks linked to Azerbaijan’s “western Azerbaijan” narrative

(Horizon Weekly) – Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has released its 2026 Annual Report on external security risks, outlining both opportunities for stability and ongoing challenges in the regional security environment. While the service assesses the likelihood of large scale military escalation as low in the coming year, it highlights several political and informational risks that could affect long term peace efforts, including Azerbaijan’s continued promotion of the so called “Western Azerbaijan” narrative.

According to the report, diplomatic developments following the 2025 Washington agreements have reduced the immediate risk of renewed hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The intelligence service notes that negotiations on peace, border delimitation, regional connectivity, and economic cooperation have created a framework that makes major military confrontation unlikely in 2026.

At the same time, the report expresses concern over narratives and actions that could undermine confidence building measures. Particular attention is given to Azerbaijan’s increasing emphasis on the concept of “Western Azerbaijan,” which refers to territory within the internationally recognized borders of the Republic of Armenia. Armenian intelligence assesses that the expanded use of this rhetoric since the Washington talks carries potential risks for regional stability and the overall peace process.

The service warns that such narratives may complicate negotiations and could be used to reshape diplomatic discourse on territorial and humanitarian issues, including discussions related to the displaced population of Nagorno Karabakh. It states that evaluating Azerbaijan’s intentions behind the promotion of this concept will be among the Foreign Intelligence Service’s priorities in 2026.

Beyond bilateral relations, the report also highlights broader security concerns, including the risk of hybrid threats and foreign influence operations. These include disinformation campaigns, cyber threats, and attempts to affect Armenia’s internal political environment, particularly in the context of the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Overall, the Foreign Intelligence Service presents a cautiously balanced assessment, noting both reduced risks of armed conflict and the persistence of political and informational challenges. It stresses the importance of continued vigilance in monitoring developments that could impact Armenia’s sovereignty, security, and long term stability.