A Blow to Ankara: Syrian Army Makes Advances in Aleppo Offensive

A Blow to Ankara: Syrian Army Makes Advances in Aleppo Offensive –

AlAkhbar – Ankara had been dreading this scenario. On Feb. 16, the Syrian regime army launched an offensive to besiege opposition-controlled areas of Aleppo, lifting the opposition’s 18-month siege on two Shiite villages and severing the opposition’s supply lines to Turkey. If Aleppo falls, the next front to intensify will be Turkey’s border. Beirut daily Al-Akhbar reported the situation with the headline: “A blow to Ankara: Syrian army makes advances in Aleppo offensive.”
 

The Syrian army and its allied forces are continuing the battle to besiege neighborhoods under the control of the opposition in the city of Aleppo, and to break the siege around the towns of Nubl and al-Zahraa in the city’s northern countryside — a move significant for its timing. The operation is reminiscent of the army’s surrounding of Eastern Ghouta, on April 7, 2013, which sought to prevent attacks on the nearby capital, and besieged the fighters. Starting yesterday, the army has been trying to perform the same feat in Aleppo, the capital of northern Syria.

Aleppo — The battle’s significance stems from several factors. First, it coincides with United Nations envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura’s UN Security Council briefing, after the Syrian government agreed to his plan to halt the fighting in the city of Aleppo. The Syrian government seems to be saying that its agreement to go along with De Mistura’s plan will not bind its hands in Aleppo’s northern countryside, an area which Turkey openly wants to transform — with Western help — into a buffer zone.

Second, it coincides with a major battle the Syrian army is waging in the south (Daraa’s northwestern countryside and Quneitra’s countryside) to further protect Damascus and prevent opposition forces in the south from becoming a strategic threat to the capital. These simultaneous battles mean the army is capable of waging major battles on more than one front. Further, they deprive the opposition of the ability to create a balance on the battleground — a balance that would render the army’s achievements meaningless, be they military or in terms of morale.

Third, this operation — if successful — will cut off the last main road connecting Aleppo’s eastern neighborhoods (subject to opposition control) to Turkish territories.

Fourth, encircling the neighborhoods under opposition control will eventually help bring them back under the authority of the Syrian state, which would constitute a military, political and moral blow to proponents of toppling the regime and establishing a buffer zone in the north. To shed light on this issue, it is enough to remember what Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s strongman and former head of the National Intelligence Organization (who resigned to take on a more important post in Ankara), told Arab officials who met him in 2013. At the time, the Syrian army was thwarting opposition attacks on Damascus and advancing in the Qusayr area. Fidan told those who met him (based on their statements to Al-Akhbar): “All this progress will not benefit the Assad regime. When Aleppo falls in the hands of the opposition, the central region in Syria will fall entirely within a few days.”

Fifth, breaking the siege around the towns of Nubl and al-Zahraa will constitute a major moral blow to the Syrian opposition whose multiple forces (including al-Nusra Front and Jaish al-Muhajireen wal Ansar [Army of Emigrants and Supporters]) have spared no effort to occupy them. To that end, they waged more than one vicious attack in the past few weeks, all of which have failed.

The opposition is mobilizing its forces from various villages and towns in the Aleppo countryside and some from the Idlib countryside, as well, in an attempt to repel the army attack.

 Sixth, the Syrian army has adopted a somewhat new policy. A day before the attack began, it leaked information about mobilizing its forces north of the city of Aleppo ahead of its push to completely surround the city. Nevertheless, the fighters were surprised by the attack that began yesterday at dawn, allowing Syrian troops to enter three villages (Bashkoy, Hardetneen, Ratyan) on the way to Nubl and al-Zahraa.

Fighting in these areas is not easy, according to sources on battlefield. The opposition is mobilizing its forces from various villages and towns in the Aleppo countryside and some from the Idlib countryside, as well, in an attempt to repel the army attack. However, some of its forces were preoccupied on another front at Aleppo’s northwestern entrance, which the army attacked on purpose.