Kocharyan warns of external pressure and security risks facing Armenia

(Horizon Weekly / YEREVAN) — Armenia’s second president, Robert Kocharyan, has warned that Russia maintains strong economic and political leverage over Armenia, while expressing concern about regional projects and global power shifts that he says could pose long-term risks to the country.

In recent remarks reported by Armenian media outlets, Kocharyan said Russia has clear tools to influence Armenia, particularly through trade and market access. He noted that many of Armenia’s agricultural products and major businesses depend heavily on the Russian market and could face serious difficulties if access were restricted.

“If Russia targets agriculture, that is a serious problem, because our products have no other major market,” he said, adding that economic pressure could be used as part of a hybrid war.

Kocharyan also commented on Armenia’s strained relations with the Collective Security Treaty Organization, saying he shares public disappointment with the alliance. He noted that most CSTO member states, except Russia, maintain closer relations with Azerbaijan than with Armenia, which he described as a serious concern. He added that Armenia’s own policies have also contributed to the deterioration of ties.

Turning to regional developments, Kocharyan criticized the TRIPP transportation project under US oversight, characterizing it as a major security risk. He said the initiative primarily serves the interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey, while Armenia is only partially involved. According to him, the United States has limited economic interest in the project and is mainly focused on Iran.

Ahead of the June 2026 parliamentary elections, Kocharyan said the “Hayastan” (Armenia) alliance will select its prime ministerial candidate through a public opinion poll. He said current studies suggest he has the highest rating, but stressed that the final decision will depend on what best serves the alliance. He also announced plans to renew the political team.

Kocharyan addressed recent fuel price reductions, attributing them to increased global oil production. He said Azerbaijan’s limited refining capacity means it imports fuel, including from Russia, and claimed that some Russian gasoline reaches Armenia through Azerbaijan.

Commenting on global politics, Kocharyan said that recent US security strategies indicate limited interest in the South Caucasus and reflect a shift toward a multipolar world. He warned that competing approaches among major powers could increase instability.

He concluded that Armenia must avoid becoming a center of major-power rivalry and pursue a cautious diplomatic approach to protect its sovereignty and long-term stability.