US Intelligence says Armenian constitutional referendum outcome not guaranteed

(Horizon Weekly) — A recent annual report from U.S. intelligence services indicates that while significant strides have been made toward a final peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, critical obstacles remain. Chief among these is the demand from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for Armenia to amend its Constitution. Aliyev continues to insist on the removal of a reference that he claims implies Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Armenia, a move that would require a constitutional referendum. U.S. intelligence officials noted that approval of such a referendum in Armenia is “not guaranteed,” underscoring a major uncertainty for the diplomatic process.

The report identifies the August 2025 Peace Summit held at the White House as a “significant turning point” in regional relations. Under Washington’s auspices, the two nations reached preliminary agreements on a peace treaty and approved the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) project. This U.S.-managed transit route connects mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave via southern Armenia. By opening new trade flows, the project aims to benefit both countries and enhance overall regional stability, marking a shift from the military escalations seen in 2020 and 2023.

Amid these diplomatic pressures, Armenian Justice Minister Srbuhi Galyan recently addressed ongoing legal debates over the country’s foundational documents. Responding to inquiries about the proposed new Constitution, Galyan clarified that the current draft text does not include a preamble. This is a vital distinction, as the controversial reference to the 1990 Declaration of Independence, which Baku views as a territorial claim, is housed within the preamble of the existing 1995 Constitution. Galyan emphasized that while the Declaration is a historical document based on fundamental principles, the new Constitution must look toward the future to ensure a “peaceful and secure country.”

Despite the remaining hurdles, the U.S. assessment observes a positive shift in momentum. Border ceasefire violations have plummeted to near-zero levels since the August summit. Additionally, signs of economic cooperation have emerged, with Azerbaijan supplying gasoline and allowing wheat transit to Armenia, while Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has offered reciprocal proposals to maintain the thaw in relations. The coming months will be decisive as the Armenian government navigates the domestic political challenges of constitutional reform against the backdrop of this fragile regional peace.