Turkey comes close to the brink of civil war

Turkey comes close to the brink of civil war –

A flag of Kurdish workers Party (PKK) hangs on a barricade as armed Kurdish fighters man a barricade, on 18 November 2015 in the Sur district of Diyarbakir (AFP) 

By Lale Kemal

Nrttv.com – The Turkish government appeared to be determined not to extinguish the fire that has broken out in the country’s Kurdish Southeast, allowing it to spread.

Around 10,000 troops backed by tanks have launched fresh, massive operations in various cities in the region to clear the area of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The fighting between the security forces and the youth branch of the PKK has been ongoing in urban areas since its resumption in mid-July, when the government declared that it had frozen the Turkish-Kurdish peace process, which lasted only two-and-a-half years. The process was intended to end the country’s almost three-decades-old armed uprising that has taken the lives of around 50,000 people, including members of the security forces, through non-military means.

Since the collapse of the peace process and its replacement by heavy fighting since mid-July, around 300,000 people have been forced to leave their homes due to clashes and curfews, while schools, government buildings and houses have been destroyed and infrastructure crippled.

Yet, there is no light at the end of the tunnel for a way out of this conflict, which has the serious potential to spread all over Turkey, triggering a civil war. On the contrary, the Turkish government offers no political solution to end the conflict and is instead determined to continue fighting unabated. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said on Dec. 16 that operations against the PKK will not remain half-finished and that they will continue until the towns are “cleansed.” However, Turkey has 30 years of experience of fighting in which neither the PKK has stopped nor has the government won the war against this organization through military means.

The Turkish opposition parties have been engaged in a war of words with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) concerning the escalated violence, reducing hopes that Parliament can be instrumental in ending the conflict in the Southeast.

The determination to continue the fighting in the Southeast clearly demonstrates the Turkish government’s loss of direction in the governance of the country at a time when it has been facing multiple challenges in its region, with Syria to its south engulfed in a civil war, while the turmoil in Iraq has been further complicating any solution that could be found to the crisis in the region. Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet in late November, followed by sending additional Turkish troops to Iraq, are moves that have backfired, further strengthening its role as part of a problem in the region but not a game changer.

Normally at this time of the year, PKK activity drops off, but clearly it feels it has the momentum. It’s also highly likely that all Kurds in the region feel that the international community is supportive of their overall demands for recognition.

The issue for Turkey, especially abroad, is that the news is very negative, a Western diplomat who formerly served in this country told me. “Indeed, every television channel paints a picture of a country that is not serious about fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and in the Levant [ISIL], shot down the Russian fighter jet without good reason, drags its feet when it comes to closing its border with Syria, is violating Iraqi sovereignty by stationing troops in that country without permission, has failed to stem the refugee flow to Europe, is fighting its own people and, according to Amnesty International, is mistreating its refugees,” the source said.

“No, there is no sympathy for Turkey, and to be frank, the current government is despised. I sense matters will get worse and Russia will not stop turning the screws. Washington will naturally say the right things about supporting Turkey, but I suspect many in the US government are loving the fact that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin continues to bash [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan at every opportunity,” argues my source.

Here in Ankara, the Turkish capital, the Turkish government is engaged in massive propaganda through a media over which it has almost taken complete control, painting a picture of a country that is serious about coping with problems in its region while justifying its fight against its own people.

In one of the rare moments that a critical voice has appeared on government-controlled media, Altan Tan, a deputy from the main pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), told CNN Türk on Dec. 16 that there has been a war taking place in the Southeast. “The Turkish government is now understood to have made war plans earlier through internal security laws and to have made investments on building military outposts in the region to prepare the groundwork for ending the peace process and initiating fighting,” he said.

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Lale Kemal is an author in Turkey, and she’s been the Turkey correspondent for the UK-based Jane’s Defense Weekly since 1991.