Russian paper “discloses” Karabakh settlement variant “under discussion”

Russian paper “discloses” Karabakh settlement variant “under discussion” –

By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN

ArmeniaNow 

Russian media have disclosed the alleged plan of Russia to settle the Karabakh conflict. Apparently, that is thе plan that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed with Armenia’s leadership during his November 9 visit to Yerevan. 

Russia’s Kommersant daily writes that according to its source close to the negotiations, “one of the variants of the peace plan, which is currently being discussed, is as follows: the Armenians return to Azerbaijan control over most of the captured Azerbaijani territories around Karabakh, while retaining the Lachin corridor, which provides connection with Armenia and, possibly, another district. Baku does not officially recognize Karabakh’s secession, but, according to the plan, it commits itself to not solving the problem by military means. The guarantee of it could be the deployment of international peacekeepers (the UN or the Collective Security Treaty Organization) in the conflict zone, as well as demilitarization of the districts returned to Azerbaijan.”

The Armenian opposition newspaper “Haykakan Zhamanak” also suggests that such a plan was discussed during Lavrov’s visit. The daily claims Russia is preparing a “behind-the-scenes collusion”. Moscow is allegedly trying to convince Yerevan to hand over to Azerbaijan part of the lands held by Karabakh in exchange for Azerbaijan’s agreement to join the Eurasian Economic Union.

At first glance it may seem that this plan is very similar to the so-called Madrid Principles of settlement proposed by the joint American, Russian and French chairmanship of the OSCE Minsk Group. However, there are at least two important differences: the Russian plan concerns the ceding of all territories around the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, which is two-thirds of the current territory of Karabakh. In the Madrid Principles, however, the number of areas is not specified. Besides, the Russian plan has a hint at deployment in the conflict zone of the CSTO troops, in other words, Russian troops. While the mandate of the OSCE Minsk Group implies that forces of countries that are not intermediaries in the conflict settlement will rather be deployed.

Moscow makes such a proposal to Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan at a time when Armenia is going to have a referendum on amendments to the Constitution, in accordance with which the country is to adopt a parliamentary form of government. These amendments – even if they fail to ensure Sargsyan’s continued formal power – will secure him from becoming detached from the top echelons of power under the next leader.

The 168 Zham newspaper alleges that Russia is preparing “a coup d’etat plan” in Armenia. If Sargsyan does not agree to the terms of Russia on the Karabakh settlement and the deployment of Russian troops, Moscow, with the help of its supporters in Yerevan, is going to thwart the referendum and make the coup, according to the newspaper.

The Armenian authorities do not confirm the existence of such a plan, but during Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian reaffirmed Yerevan’s commitment to the OSCE Minsk Group format. Though, Lavrov himself talked about it, warning Azerbaijan against shifting the issue to other platforms, such as the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly where Russia does not have sufficient influence.

“168 Zham” assumes that if radical actions of opponents of the December 6 referendum start in Armenia soon, it will mean that the Armenian leadership has not accepted the Russian plan for a Karabakh conflict settlement and Moscow has started its efforts aimed at scuttling the referendum.